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• • Resilient, but slower expansion: After pandemic whiplash, goods flows are
stabilizing at a slower trend pace. Q1 2025 goods trade rose gently, but policy and
security risks (Red Sea disruptions, export controls, sanctions) keep a lid on
momentum and capex appetite.
• • Regional re-balancing: Developed-economy trade picked up more than many
developing peers in early 2025, driven by strong US import growth and improved EU
exports. Meanwhile, some developing regions lagged given weaker demand and
tighter financing, widening the gap between trade “winners” and “waiters”.
• • The rise of “midstream” manufacturing: To navigate tariffs and rules-of-origin,
firms increasingly place assembly and component work in third countries. This
spreads value chains wider and raises the importance of logistics quality, compliance,
and trade facilitation in “connector” economies — from Vietnam and Mexico to the
UAE and Türkiye.
• • Commodity sensitivity persists: Energy and metals prices, climate shocks, and
freight costs still sway goods trade volumes and values. Even as freight rates cooled
from their pandemic highs, geopolitics keeps volatility within reach.
Trends reshaping services
• • Services outpacing goods: Services continue to be the growth engine of global
trade. On a 12-month view, services’ annual growth remains robust relative to
goods, though quarter-on-quarter gains moderated. Transport and travel are
recovering unevenly; business and digital services are structurally stronger2.
• • Digital, remote, and “borderless” delivery: From software and design to diagnostics
and education, more services cross borders without crossing customs. This
“weightless trade” is less constrained by physical bottlenecks but still sensitive to
data rules, privacy, and standards — policy terrain that remains in flux.
• • Travel’s two-speed comeback: Leisure flows have revived faster than some
corporate travel segments. Where entry regimes normalized, tourism lifted local
service ecosystems; where visas, safety, or costs stayed restrictive, recovery lagged
— and virtual formats filled the gap.
• • Financial and professional services as stabilizers: Even with macro uncertainty,
demand for risk management, compliance, restructuring, and analytics has held up,
cushioning service export leaders. Still, tighter financing conditions earlier in the
cycle moderated investment-linked services demand.
• • Uneven benefits: Least-developed countries remain vulnerable to external shocks
and narrow export baskets; capturing services growth requires digital infrastructure,
skills, and supportive policy — gaps that many LDCs are still working to close.
Cross-currents affecting both goods and services
• • Policy uncertainty is the new baseline: Tariffs, industrial policy, tech export
controls, and carbon border measures are redrawing incentives. The WTO notes
tariff reactivations can materially dent goods growth, with spillovers into transport,
logistics, and investment services. Firms are responding with compliance muscle and
scenario planning.